The recent forecast by Silicon Valley Bank’s wine division officially brought the financial crisis into perspective for the California industry. While it’s been clear for quite some time that the wine market was changing and would by no means make it through our current economic woes unfazed, it was nonetheless disconcerting to see the long and short of it from a reputable source. Yes, the days of exclusive cult wines are coming to an end (or at least forcing vintners to rethink their sales model). Yes, there is a real and serious drought affecting all growers, even those who aren’t necessarily in dire straights financially. Yes, it’s very likely that it will get worse before it gets better. Being ever the optimist, I decided to compile this list of positive speculation to be gleaned from all of this gloom and doom.
You will pay less for more
There’s a lot of higher math and science involved with wine making, so we can be sure that good vintners aren’t stupid. Even for the econ challenged, it has already become evident that those once-in-a-lifetime bottles are turning into not-in-a-lifetime bottles, at least for the time being. The smart winemaker will probably turn his attention from perfecting that premium haute cuvee to increasing the quality and affordability of his bread and butter offerings. As recent events have shown, even the big guys are buying into this idea and aiming for a lower price point. Whole new lines may be developed so that traditionally small scale, boutique producers will become a bit more accessible to the greater market. The $11 to $20 price range for a bottle of wine is still moving while the $30+ is slowing considerably, and the $100+ is dead in the water, so I look forward to seeing Ten Acres Napa Valley Cab on my local wine store’s shelves.
Adversity breeds innovation
As the value wine market becomes even more flooded and California winemakers are forced to do battle with Chile, Argentina, and other New World phenoms (in a horrible vintage no less), expect innovation and experimentation to become more common. Whereas in the past it was a fun project for the winemaker and his wine geek friends, in the new, overcrowded market experimentation can distinguish a winery. Viticulturists have been experimenting with new varietals for quite some time, and there are some truly crazy things happening in the wine making process itself. From the introduction of new varietals, to new experimental practices, to greener techniques, there are a lot of things to get excited about despite the dreary forecast.
Wine 2.0
With the traditional distribution model becoming nearly impossible for small wineries under the current economic conditions, we will see the wine world continue to expand onto the world wide web in creative new ways. A recent study by the Wine Market Council showed that the Millennial and Gen Xer’s are spurring wine growth and sales, and it is becoming more and more apparent that the most effective way to reach that demographic is through e-marketing. Already, tons of small wineries all around the country are adopting the strategies that Gary V. spearheaded. The web provides limitless potential for wineries to break the mold and make their messages heard. Websites like cellartracker, wine2.0, twitter, open wine consortium and cork’d show that social networking and wine go hand in hand. This benefits the smaller wineries who are doing interesting things by gaining them exposure even when their distribution is not wide enough for the larger outlets such as Wine Spectator to take notice. I don’t doubt that very soon the major outlets will even have a hard time keeping up with trends and news, as the Millennials take over the market.
Whether all of these things really come to pass or not, I think it’s safe to say that times, they are a-changing. I for one am putting on rose-colored glasses, because maybe in hindsight this crisis will look less like an imminent and unavoidable disaster, and more like the precipice of a great new era in wine making and connoisseurship.
